How will you make sure the subsidy actually reduces the pump price rather than simply reducing the refinery’s production cost?

Answer: I am proposing a Production Subsidy Model that lowers crude supply prices or offers fiscal relief on inputs to local refiners. This reduces refining costs at home and lowers retail pump prices without forcing refiners into losses. Q40: If government subsidises locally refined petrol or crude supplied to refineries, how much will it cost, where will the money come from, and what happens if oil prices rise or government revenue falls? Answer: The subsidy will be explicitly capped in the national budget and funded directly from domestic crude sales. Global price shocks will be managed using structured fiscal stabilization buffers and oil revenue hedging tools.

Q41: How will you ensure that any subsidy reaches consumers rather than becoming additional profit for refinery owners, being diverted, or being abused through corruption and false claims? Answer: Subsidies will be paid only on verified volume output measured by digital meters at refinery gates, backed by end-to-end supply chain tracking to prevent false claims and smuggling. Q42: Which refineries would qualify for the subsidy, how will Nigerians know how much government is spending, and what mechanisms will ensure transparency? Answer: All licensed public and private domestic refineries qualify. Transparency is guaranteed through monthly public reporting of crude allocations, refined outputs, and subsidy payouts on an open portal. Q43: How long would the subsidy last, and what conditions would determine when it should be reduced or ended? Answer: My policy includes a clear sunset clause, gradually unwinding the subsidy as domestic refining meets 100% of national demand, foreign exchange stabilizes, and consumer incomes rise.

The Presidency turned it into a campaign of fear. “A refinery that has invested billions of dollars cannot be commanded to sell indefinitely below cost and absorb the losses. That would be reckless, economically destructive and unfair to any private investor. “But that is precisely why our proposal is different. “We are restoring subsidy through a production subsidy model, not an import subsidy model. “The difference is simple enough for every Nigerian to understand. Import subsidy spends public money supporting petrol refined abroad and brought into Nigeria. Production subsidy supports crude refined here in Nigeria so that Nigerian refineries can produce fuel more cheaply and Nigerians can pay less. “Think of it like rice.

“Our proposal is clear: support domestic production, reduce the cost of crude going into Nigerian refineries, protect legitimate refinery margins and ensure that lower production costs translate into lower costs for Nigerians.” Atiku said the Presidency should stop inventing a policy for him and then attacking the fiction it created. “We have been clear from the beginning. “We are restoring subsidy through a production model. “We are proposing a production subsidy not an import subsidy. We are not proposing to subsidise petrol refined abroad. We are not proposing to force Dangote or any other Nigerian refinery to sell below cost. “We are proposing targeted support for crude refined here in Nigeria so that domestic refineries can produce more competitively, expand capacity, create jobs and sell fuel at a price Nigerians can better afford.

“If the Presidency wants a debate, let us have the debate. “But let it first stop lying about what we are proposing.” Atiku said Dangote’s warning ultimately strengthens the case for the production subsidy model. “Dangote is right that a refinery should not be forced to carry the burden of an artificially imposed price. We agree. “Nigerians are also right that the present cost of fuel, transportation, food and doing business has become unbearable. “Our production subsidy answers both concerns. “It protects refinery viability while reducing the cost of producing fuel in Nigeria. “That is the choice before the country: continue with a system in which Nigerians pay more and government merely explains their suffering, or move to a production model that deliberately lowers costs and puts money back into people’s pockets. “We choose production. “We choose Nigerian refining.

My dear Francis, thank you for taking the time to truly understand what I am proposing. That means a great deal to me. I am not restoring subsidy so that Nigeria can keep paying for imported petrol. I am restoring subsidy so that Nigerians can produce more at home, pay less for fuel, and keep more money in their pockets. That is the difference between import subsidy and production subsidy. Think about shoes. If government wants Nigerians to buy shoes more cheaply, it can spend public money making imported shoes cheaper, or it can support shoemakers in Aba to reduce their production costs so they can make more shoes here, employ more Nigerians and sell at more affordable prices. I choose the Aba shoemaker. I will do the same with fuel. We will support crude refined in Nigeria so our refineries can produce at a lower cost and you can pay less. But for me, this is bigger than fuel. I want the bus fare you pay every morning to come down. I want the cost of taking food from the farm to the market to come down. I want the trader to spend less. I want the barber, tailor, welder and small business owner to spend less on energy.