What happens to petrol prices in your first hundred days?

Answer: I am proposing a Production Subsidy Model that lowers crude supply prices or offers fiscal relief on inputs to local refiners. This reduces refining costs at home and lowers retail pump prices without forcing refiners into losses. Q40: If government subsidises locally refined petrol or crude supplied to refineries, how much will it cost, where will the money come from, and what happens if oil prices rise or government revenue falls? Answer: The subsidy will be explicitly capped in the national budget and funded directly from domestic crude sales. Global price shocks will be managed using structured fiscal stabilization buffers and oil revenue hedging tools.

President Bola Tinubu, at his inauguration on May 29, 2023, announced the abolishment of the subsidy on PMS, popularly known as fuel. Ever since, it has been a bragging right of Tinubu and officials of his administration. I had in my statement reviewing the one year of the Bola Tinubu administration urged the government to come clean on the actual position of the subsidy policy. These were my exact words: "...provide clarity on the fuel subsidy regime, including the fiscal commitments and benefits from the fuel subsidy reform and the impact of this on the Federation Accounts. It is curious that since April 2024, fuel queues have mounted at many filling stations across Nigeria, and the infamous ‘black market’ has sprouted in several states. How much PMS is being imported and distributed, and at what cost? What is the implicit subsidy?" If the subsidy regime had been characterised by opaqueness, what would we say of a situation where the subsidy is still being paid under the cover without Nigerians in the know?

President Bola Tinubu, at his inauguration on May 29, 2023, announced the abolishment of the subsidy on PMS, popularly known as fuel. Ever since, it has been a bragging right of Tinubu and officials of his administration. I had in my statement reviewing the one year of the Bola Tinubu administration urged the government to come clean on the actual position of the subsidy policy. These were my exact words: "...provide clarity on the fuel subsidy regime, including the fiscal commitments and benefits from the fuel subsidy reform and the impact of this on the Federation Accounts. It is curious that since April 2024, fuel queues have mounted at many filling stations across Nigeria, and the infamous ‘black market’ has sprouted in several states. How much PMS is being imported and distributed, and at what cost? What is the implicit subsidy?" If the subsidy regime had been characterised by opaqueness, what would we say of a situation where the subsidy is still being paid under the cover without Nigerians in the know?

Atiku said the relationship between energy costs and household welfare was precisely why his economic programme placed affordability at its centre. The World Bank has previously noted that higher petrol prices reduce household purchasing power directly and can also feed through into the prices of other goods and services, particularly transportation. “When fuel becomes expensive, transporting tomatoes from the farm becomes expensive. Taking rice to the market becomes expensive. Moving children to school becomes expensive. Running the neighbourhood grinding machine becomes expensive. Powering the small shop becomes expensive. “And eventually, the additional cost arrives at the dinner table. “That is why I refuse to accept an economic philosophy in which government simply watches prices rise and tells struggling citizens to endure.” Atiku reiterated that his proposed petroleum intervention is a production subsidy, rather than a return to subsidising imported petrol. His published proposal provides for targeted support tied to crude refined domestically, with the intervention capped, transparently budgeted and independently audited.

You say Nigerians must endure the pain because you are curing the disease. But when a patient cries out, a doctor listens. He does not call the patient “regressive” for asking when he will get better. He does not point to the hospital’s rising revenue and declare him healed. A patient who cannot afford to live is not proof that the treatment is working. And you cannot speak as though you arrived from the moon in 2023. Your party had governed Nigeria for eight years. If the country was as sick as you say, tell Nigerians what responsibility your party bears for its condition. Let us bring this argument down from the podium to the places where Nigerians make their daily choices: the filling station, the market stall and the breakfast table. In April 2023, a ₦30,000 minimum wage could buy about 118 litres of petrol. Today, a ₦70,000 minimum wage buys just 50 litres. The salary has more than doubled on paper; the petrol it can buy has fallen by more than half.

We will introduce a capped, budgeted production subsidy tied to verified fuel refined in Nigeria, including fuel from modular refineries. Imported petrol will not qualify. The benefit must reach consumers through lower pump prices. We will publish the costs, independently audit the payments and cut government waste to help fund the programme. The principle is simple: produce here, refine here, create jobs here and pay less here. If Bola disagrees, he should answer the proposal on its merits. Calling relief an addiction will not lower the price of petrol. Bola, your speech is full of “we will.” We will make farming cheaper. We will power factories. We will create jobs. We will bring down prices. You have been President for more than three years. Nigerians are entitled to ask what you have done with the time already given to you. You say that when farmers produce more cheaply and manufacturers spend less on electricity, prices will fall. Of course they will. But farmers and manufacturers are telling you that they cannot produce cheaply now. A farmer who cannot safely reach his field cannot wait for your theory of cheaper food. A factory paying more to keep its machines running cannot wait for another promise of industrial growth.