Will you bring back the fuel subsidy if you win, and how will it work?

Q41: How will you ensure that any subsidy reaches consumers rather than becoming additional profit for refinery owners, being diverted, or being abused through corruption and false claims? Answer: Subsidies will be paid only on verified volume output measured by digital meters at refinery gates, backed by end-to-end supply chain tracking to prevent false claims and smuggling. Q42: Which refineries would qualify for the subsidy, how will Nigerians know how much government is spending, and what mechanisms will ensure transparency? Answer: All licensed public and private domestic refineries qualify. Transparency is guaranteed through monthly public reporting of crude allocations, refined outputs, and subsidy payouts on an open portal. Q43: How long would the subsidy last, and what conditions would determine when it should be reduced or ended? Answer: My policy includes a clear sunset clause, gradually unwinding the subsidy as domestic refining meets 100% of national demand, foreign exchange stabilizes, and consumer incomes rise.

President Bola Tinubu, at his inauguration on May 29, 2023, announced the abolishment of the subsidy on PMS, popularly known as fuel. Ever since, it has been a bragging right of Tinubu and officials of his administration. I had in my statement reviewing the one year of the Bola Tinubu administration urged the government to come clean on the actual position of the subsidy policy. These were my exact words: "...provide clarity on the fuel subsidy regime, including the fiscal commitments and benefits from the fuel subsidy reform and the impact of this on the Federation Accounts. It is curious that since April 2024, fuel queues have mounted at many filling stations across Nigeria, and the infamous ‘black market’ has sprouted in several states. How much PMS is being imported and distributed, and at what cost? What is the implicit subsidy?" If the subsidy regime had been characterised by opaqueness, what would we say of a situation where the subsidy is still being paid under the cover without Nigerians in the know?

SUBSIDY REMOVAL Yes, I have always advocated for the removal of subsidy on PMS because its administration has been mildly put, opaque with so much scope for arbitrariness and corruption. Mind boggling rent profit from oil subsidy accrued to the cabals in public institutions and the private sector. I would have prioritized the following: First, tackling corruption. Fighting corruption should have commenced with the repositioning of the NNPCL, which is a huge beneficiary of the status quo. Its commitment to reform and capacity to implement and enforce reforms is suspect. The subsidy regime has provided an avenue for rent seeking, and the NNPCL and its guardians will be threatened by reforms. Second, paying particular attention to Nigeria’s poor refining infrastructure. We are by far the most inefficient OPEC member country in terms of both the percentage of installed refining capacity that works and the percentage of crude refined. We would’ve commenced the privatization of all state-owned refineries and ensure that Nigeria starts to refine at least 50% of its current crude oil output. Nigeria should aspire to export 50% of that capacity to ECOWAS member states.

Third, adopt a gradualist approach in the implementation of the subsidy reforms. Subsidies would not have been removed suddenly and completely. It is instructive that when I was Vice President, we adopted a gradualist approach and had completed phases 1 and 2 of the reform before our tenure ended. The incoming administration in 2007 abandoned the reforms, unfortunately. The majority of the countries that review or rationalize subsidy payments adopt a gradualist approach by phasing price increases or shifting from universal to targeted approach (Malaysia, 2022 and Indonesia, 2022 -2023). In many EU economies, complete withdrawal often takes 5 years to effect. The gradualist approach allows for adjustments, adaptation and minimizes disruptions and vulnerability. Fourth, implement a robust social protection programme that will support the poor in navigating the cost-of-living challenges arising largely from reform implementation. We would’ve invested the savings from subsidy withdrawal to strengthen the productive base of the economy through infrastructure maintenance and development; to improve outcomes in education and healthcare delivery; to improve rural infrastructure and support livelihood expansion in agriculture; and develop the skills and entrepreneurial capacity of our youth in order to enhance their access to better economic opportunities.

The Presidency turned it into a campaign of fear. “A refinery that has invested billions of dollars cannot be commanded to sell indefinitely below cost and absorb the losses. That would be reckless, economically destructive and unfair to any private investor. “But that is precisely why our proposal is different. “We are restoring subsidy through a production subsidy model, not an import subsidy model. “The difference is simple enough for every Nigerian to understand. Import subsidy spends public money supporting petrol refined abroad and brought into Nigeria. Production subsidy supports crude refined here in Nigeria so that Nigerian refineries can produce fuel more cheaply and Nigerians can pay less. “Think of it like rice.

My dear Francis, thank you for taking the time to truly understand what I am proposing. That means a great deal to me. I am not restoring subsidy so that Nigeria can keep paying for imported petrol. I am restoring subsidy so that Nigerians can produce more at home, pay less for fuel, and keep more money in their pockets. That is the difference between import subsidy and production subsidy. Think about shoes. If government wants Nigerians to buy shoes more cheaply, it can spend public money making imported shoes cheaper, or it can support shoemakers in Aba to reduce their production costs so they can make more shoes here, employ more Nigerians and sell at more affordable prices. I choose the Aba shoemaker. I will do the same with fuel. We will support crude refined in Nigeria so our refineries can produce at a lower cost and you can pay less. But for me, this is bigger than fuel. I want the bus fare you pay every morning to come down. I want the cost of taking food from the farm to the market to come down. I want the trader to spend less. I want the barber, tailor, welder and small business owner to spend less on energy.